歴史地震デ－タと活断層デ－タに基づく近畿地方の地震危険度解析

Abstract

We estimate the seismic hazard for the Kinki district by combining historical earthquake data and active fault data jointly according to the Bayes' theorem.Because the active fault data have information about the seismic activity of last one million years.Attenuation equation is indispensable to calculate the earthquake occurrence rate that the acceleration, a, exceeds a value, a, at the site. The newly developed procedure considering fault extent is applied in order to derive the attenuation equation from the active fault data.Risk maps for the Kinki district for a return period of 100 years were calculated from the combined data.The expectation of acceleration exceeds 300 gal in places such as the Osaka Bay area, the vicinity of Lake Biwa and around Ise Bay for the return period of 100 years.