不安定場モデルをベースにした3次元レーダー情報による短時間降雨予測手法

Abstract

This paper includes description on evaluation of physically based short-term rainfall prediction method by use of three-dimensionally scanning radar, which we have already proposed, into a operationally utilized method; and a new definition of insatability field model which should be utilized as a main component of the prediction method.The evaluation has been realized by the following developments; (1) Utilizing conventional and operational method of predicting rainfall using radar information in the form of PPI or CAPPI into the prediction of the movement of instability field; (2) Developing method of estimating and predicting wind field associated with typhoon; (3) Reduction of CPU time of prediction by simplifying computation scheme.On the other hand, the new definition of the instability field model has realized that vertical transportation of water vapor and the concept of latent inatability were cooperatively introduced into the model, with results that a shape of rainband became to be fully represented by use of this phisically based model.