南東北・北関東集中豪雨の生起・伝播特性

Abstract

集中豪雨に関して一般的に言われている生起・伝播特性ならびにその予測に関する現状を踏まえ, 数値予報(GPV)情報およびAMeDAS情報から同定した大気場情報, 建設省赤城山レーダー情報をベースに1998年8月末に生起した東北豪雨の内, 26‐27日の豪雨の生起・伝播特性の解析をメソα, β, γのスケール別に行うとともに, 短時間降雨予測手法へ導入可能ないくつかの力学的指標と豪雨特性の関連性を明らかにした,

Characteristics of generation of a localized heavy rainfall are investigated using outputs from an operational numerical weather prediction model named RSM (Regional Spectrum Model), surface wind field observed by the AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System) and radar image from a volumu scanning radar named Akagiyama radar rainguage. The investigation was conducted based on the classification of event features by their spacial scales such as meso a, j3, and y scales. As a result, relations between some dynamical indices and strom-system generation were made clear, which could be utilized into a physically-based short-term rainfall pre-diction method.