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Title: 予測情報の不確実性を考慮した貯水池利水操作における確率流況予測情報の利用性分析手法の開発
Other Titles: Development of a Method for Impact Analysis of Stochastic Streamflow Prediction on Reservoir Operation for Water Use Considering Prediction's Uncertainty
Authors: 野原, 大督  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
堀, 智晴  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
Author's alias: NOHARA, Daisuke
HORI, Tomoharu
Keywords: 貯水池操作
reservoir operation
stochastic streamflow prediction
uncertainty index
Monte Carlo simulation
impact analysis
Issue Date: Sep-2013
Publisher: 京都大学防災研究所
Journal title: 京都大学防災研究所年報. B = Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annuals. B
Volume: 56
Issue: B
Start page: 625
End page: 637
Abstract: A method for impacts analysis of uncertainties of stochastic streamflow prediction on long-term reservoir operation for drought management is therefore investigated in order to analyze the kind of uncertainty that most affects improvements in the performance of reservoir operations. Monte Carlo simulations of reservoir operation for water supply are conducted, coupling with optimization process of reservoir operations by stochastic dynamic programming considering long-term stochastic streamflow predictions, which are artificially generated with arbitrary uncertainties controlled by changing uncertainty indices proposed in this study. A fundamental case study was conducted using a simplified reservoir basin of which data was derived from the Sameura Reservoir basin in Japan, demonstrating the implication of the effect of stochastic streamflow prediction and its uncertainty.
Appears in Collections:Vol.56 B

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