領域気候モデルを用いた気候変動に伴う梅雨期集中豪雨の将来変化予測に関する研究

Abstract

In recent year, the frequency and the intensity of localized heavy rainfall enhanced by climate change was quantified using the outputs from super high resolution regional climate model (resolutions of 5km and 30minutes) provided by KAKUSHIN program. As results of Nakakita et al. 2011, it was found that the frequency of localized heavy rainfall events has a tendency to increase significantly in the end of the 21st century and that they might occurs on the Pacific Ocean side of East Japan with obvious spatial pattern. However, 5kmRCM has only one calculation result. In this study, therefore, we statistically downscale the ensemble information of 60kmGCM using the dynamical downscale information of 5kmRCM and analyze the ensemble information of localized heavy rainfall during Baiu season.