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Title: Consumer Confidence and the Japanese Economy -Comparison of Pre- and Post-Bubble Period-
Authors: Utaka, Atsuo
Author's alias: 宇高, 淳郎
Keywords: consumer confidence
GDP fluctuations
Issue Date: 1-Jun-2014
Publisher: Economics Bulletin
Journal title: Economics Bulletin
Volume: 34
Issue: 2
Start page: 1165
End page: 1173
Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of confidence on the Japanese economy by using vector autoregressions. Especially, I divide the total estimation period into two parts, pre- and post-bubble periods, and analyze the transition of that effect through the ages. It is shown that consumer confidence has a significant effect on GDP. Moreover, that effect becomes larger in a post-bubble period than in a pre-bubble period, which implies that the low level of confidence has worsened the economic condition in the lost (two) decade(s) after the bubble period.
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