Estimation of the Average Stream Flow in the Immediate Future for Hydro-electric Power Generation

Abstract

In making an economical study of a large combined hydro-steam power system, it is necessary to estimate the annual average available power of the rivers for any given year in the immediate future, and, especially for the control of a plant of pondage or storage type, to estimate the drought-seasonal average stream flow during the coming winter. In this paper we shall study the method for estimating the annual average stream flow by means of the theoretically based method of statistical extrapolation, and the method for estimating the drought-seasonal average stream flow during the coming winter by means of the method of statistical extrapolation for a time series with two members, by analysing the existing data of the seasonal average stream flows during winter and autumn over a number of recent years, including that for autumn of the estimated year, taking the data of certain rivers as examples.