Some Theoretical Aspects of Car Trips within Urban Area

Abstract

OD trips in urban area are described by an ergodic Markov chain for each kind of car and have a certain steady pattern for each trip. The pattern of OD trips is effected by the total number of cars independently of initial distribution of registered cars and strongly by the transition probabilities from zone to zone and their limiting vector. The limiting vector make a display of potentiality of generating trips for each kind of car. In estimating future traffic volume, it plays an important role in determination of the pattern of car trips, because the limiting vector is given by land use planning. Transition probabilities are introduced from maximizing entropy per unit time under the fixed limiting vector. Thus OD trips in the future are easily estimated, using the transition probabilities. It is proved that car trips estimated by maximizing entropy are symmetrical.