Identification and Prediction for the Long Range Runoff Systems

Abstract

In this paper, the runoff simulation method has been discussed in order to obtain effective information for water resource planning. The framework consists of the identification of the long range runoff systems and the simulation for the areal daily precipitation while the runoff data are simulated by their combination. First, for identifying the long range runoff systems, the improved statistical unit hydrograph method is proposed based on the techniques of information theory. Next, the daily precipitation data are simulated over a long period and in a wide area through the successive combination of regional correlation analysis between the base or sub-base and surrounding stations, spatial simulation between the base and sub-base stations, and sequential simulation at the base station. Finally, by the combination of the improved statistical unit hydrograph method and the simulation method for areal daily precipitation, the observed data are shown with sufficient accuracy.