Mathematical Model of Ship Collision Probability

Abstract

A mathematical model for estimating the probability of collision of ships passing through a uniform channel is proposed. The model takes into account the give-way motions of the encountered ships and the wake position characteristics under the given channel conditions such as width, length and centerline like buoys. The probability of collision is defined as the probability of an event where a ship fails to give way. Using this probability of collision, the “Collision Risk of Channel” is defined. The proposed model is examined by the collision statistics of some channels and straits in Japan. According to these statistics, the present model gives a good estimation of the collision risk of a channel. Since the proposed model takes account of traffic characteristics such as traffic volume, ship size distribution, and sailing velocity distribution, as well as channel conditions such as width, length and centerline mark like buoys, the effects of their change or control on the probability of collision can be easily predicted. Therefore, the proposed model is quite useful for the engineering planning and design of any channel.