地域内農家戸数の中長期予測のためのモデル開発

Abstract

Today, the ability to forecast the agricultural structure in each region has great significance to offer extremely important information when concretely setting up a regional agricultural promotion plan. In this paper, the author has developed a new measurement model which attempts to explain the transition of the number of farm households according to the types found in a specific region. In that case, the author has aimed at the development of a model in which certain economical indices were assumed to be an explanation variable. Concretely, five regions in Kyoto Prefecture were taken up as cases, and the parameters of the model were assumed for each region. Moreover, a mid- and long-term forecast was made based on the results and the effectiveness of the model was examined. As a result, it is likely that this approach will contribute to a new model of agricultural forecasting.