南ベトナムの米経済と米政策 : 統計的・実証的分析

Abstract

In this paper empirical description and analysis of the rice market and the rice policy of South Vietnam in the sixties and early seventies up to August 1974 were done. The emphasis is placed on rice marketing and related policies, and on investigation of the reliability of statistical data concerning rice. The rice economy in South Vietnam was affected greatly by scope and intensity of war. From 1965 the country had to import rice by considerable amounts every year changing its position from the traditional rice exporter to a large importer. But from around 1969 total rice production increased rather rapidly. The area planted to the HYV of rice also expanded rapidly. This together with the fast execution of the Land-to-the-Tiller Program from 1970 seemed to contribute the fast increase of rice production and yield in the early seventies. Rice marketing was virtually controlled by the overseas Chinese, and it seemed quite efficient although there might be some monopolistic control of the marketing. Capacities of rice mills and warehouses were enough though they need considerable repairs and improvements. Need of cheap dryers was very high because of the recent fast expansion of the HYV which was harvested in rainy season. Lack of dryer deteriorated the quality of rice and decreased its price. The rice marketing policy through the National Food Administration since 1973 was successful to a considerable extent as far as its effects on rice price were concerned. It was made possible by the availability of the large amount of rice imported by the PL480 food aid program from the United States and by the legal, administrative, and military measures of the government. The government's fertilizer price policy was also successful supported by import of fertilizer from the United States on aid basis, and contributed considerably to the fast expansion of the HYV of rice. Concerning the rice statistics, planted area and production were underestimated by about 10-20% during the sixties, but this divergence seemed to decrease in recent years. The production statistics did not included rice production from the area under solid NLF Control. Foreign trade statistics were most reliable, and the domestic shipment statistics least. Per capita rice consumption for 1972 was estimated as a balance from these statistics, but because of the error in the shipment data and of the underestimated population, the estimate was too high and biased too much regionally.