石油価格・財政金融政策・構造変化のマクロ・インパクト : タイ経済の一般均衡 (CGE) 分析(<特集>市村真一教授退官記念号--東南アジア経済・社会の変容)

Abstract

Based on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Thailand, this paper quantitatively evaluates the impacts on the Thai economy caused by such external and internal shocks as oil price changes, fiscal and financial policies, tax policies, structural and technological changes, and so on, from the point of view of comparative statics in 1982. Results are summarized as ten implications for the Thai economy. The CGE model of Thailand has three major characteristics. First, the model integrates real and financial sectors to determine the absolute level of prices. Second, the model endogenously determines the exchange rate, covering fixed, partially flexible, and completely flexible exchange rate systems. Third, the model formulates the labor market along a line similar to dualistic development theories, dividing it into formal and informal sectors. This is a condensed version of the paper in English with the same title, which appeared in M. Ezaki, ed. Development Planning and Policies in ASEAN Countries, CSEAS, Kyoto Univ., March 1987. See the original paper for details.