複合流域における洪水流出の確率予測手法

Abstract

The authors propose a stochastic method of real-time flood prediction in a basin whichconsists of several sub-basins. As a case study, they deal with the Fukuchiyama basin (1350 km2)which consists of five sub-basins; it is described as a stochastic state-space model based on the ex-isting flood prediction model of the Yura river in Japan. To compensate both model error andobservation error, continuous colored system noise and discrete white observation noise are in-corporated in the model. It is recommended that the covariance matrices of these noises arecorrelated with the states.The method presented here is useful in real-time prediction of flood runoff.