スクリーニング段階における治水システムの策定に関する研究

Abstract

The aim of this study is to establish the optimal flood control system on screening modelintroducing the multi-dimensional probability density function of rainfall.We have defined the planning objective of flood control projects as minimization problem ofconstruction cost among all alternarives satisfying the safty ratio for the flood inundation. Firstly, the conditional probability density functions of rainfall are calculated between the neighbouringsub-basins in space and the continuous two control periods in time assuming the first-order non-homogeneous Markov chain. The conditional probabilities of flow discharge are calculated throughthe simulation method based on the above probability density function of rainfall.Second, the probability of flood inundation in the whole river basin is estimated by applica-tion of Shift Operation Method.Lastly, the superior alternatives of flood control projects are gained by Design of ExperimentMethod.Those approaches are applied to the real flood control system for verification of the theory.