Estimating the potential impact of climate change on energy crop productivity in Thailand: an empirical study of sugarcane, cassava, and oil palm using panel data analysis

Abstract

In recent years, biofuels have played an important role in the economic development of Thailand as a clean and environmentally-friendly source of energy that can be produced in the agricultural sector. Thailand has particularly high efficiency in energy crop production, making the country a valuable reserve energy source. The main purpose of this study is to examine the potential impact of climate change on energy crop productivity in Thailand, specifically for sugarcane, cassava, and oil palm, using panel data analysis from 1995 to 2020 at the provincial level throughout the country. The expected yield and variance of the yield are estimated using Just and Pope’s procedure. The empirical results reveal that temperature and rainfall have different effects on the efficiency of energy crop production. The estimated potential impact indicates that higher temperatures above the average level affect energy crop productivity more than rainfall changes in different directions. The findings conclude that in order to maximize domestic energy crop productivity, it is necessary to prepare the cultivation areas to suit the local climate and weather conditions.